Ten-year conditional probability of survival for patients with ovarian cancer: A new metric tailored to Long-term survivors

Ryan Kahn; Olga Filippova; Sushmita Gordhandas; Anjile An; Alli M Straubhar; Oliver Zivanovic; Ginger J Gardner; Roisin E O'Cearbhaill; William P Tew; Rachel N Grisham; Yukio Sonoda; Kara Long Roche; Nadeem R Abu-Rustum; Dennis S Chi

doi:10.1016/j.ygyno.2022.11.030

Ten-year conditional probability of survival for patients with ovarian cancer: A new metric tailored to Long-term survivors

Ryan Kahn, Olga Filippova, Sushmita Gordhandas, Anjile An, Alli M Straubhar, Oliver Zivanovic, Ginger J Gardner, Roisin E O'Cearbhaill, William P Tew, Rachel N Grisham, Yukio Sonoda, Kara Long Roche, Nadeem R Abu-Rustum, Dennis S Chi

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: We assessed a conditional probability of survival (CPS) model to determine the probability of living 10 years after ovarian cancer diagnosis after having already survived 5 years.

METHODS: We identified patients newly diagnosed with high-grade epithelial ovarian cancer from 1/1/2001-12/31/2009 and treated at our institution. Patients with <3 years follow-up were excluded. CPS was defined as the probability of surviving additional years (y) based on the condition a patient had already survived a given time (x): S(x + y)/S(x). Confidence intervals were estimated using a variation of Greenwood's formula.

RESULTS: Of 916 patients meeting inclusion criteria, 473 (52%) were diagnosed from 2001 to 2005 and 443 (48%) from 2006 to 2009. Median age at diagnosis was 60 years (range, 25-95). The conventional 10-year OS rate for all patients was 29% (95% CI: 26%-32%)-75% (95% CI: 68%-82%) for stage I/II disease, 22% (95% CI: 19%-26%) for stage III, and 6.9% (95% CI: 3.9%-12%) for stage IV. For patients <65 years, the 10-year CPS for 5-year survivors was 65% (95% CI: 59%-70%); for those ≥65 years, it was 48% (95% CI: 38%-57%). For patients <65 years, the 10-year CPS for 5-year survivors by stage was: stage I/II, 89% (95% CI: 81%-94%); stage III, 58% (95% CI: 50%-66%); and stage IV, 26% (95% CI: 12%-42%). For patients ≥65 years, rates by stage were 78% (95% CI: 53%-91%), 42% (95% CI: 30%-53%), and 29% (95% CI: 7%-56%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: For long-term survivors with high-grade epithelial ovarian cancer, CPS provides better prediction of survival than conventional methods.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	85-90
Number of pages	6
Journal	Gynecologic Oncology
Volume	169
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ygyno.2022.11.030
State	Published - Feb 2023
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Humans
Female
Adult
Middle Aged
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Carcinoma, Ovarian Epithelial
Neoplasm Staging
Ovarian Neoplasms/pathology
Probability
Survivors

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10.1016/j.ygyno.2022.11.030

Cite this

Kahn, R., Filippova, O., Gordhandas, S., An, A., Straubhar, A. M., Zivanovic, O., Gardner, G. J., O'Cearbhaill, R. E., Tew, W. P., Grisham, R. N., Sonoda, Y., Long Roche, K., Abu-Rustum, N. R., & Chi, D. S. (2023). Ten-year conditional probability of survival for patients with ovarian cancer: A new metric tailored to Long-term survivors. Gynecologic Oncology, 169, 85-90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ygyno.2022.11.030

Kahn, R, Filippova, O, Gordhandas, S, An, A, Straubhar, AM, Zivanovic, O, Gardner, GJ, O'Cearbhaill, RE, Tew, WP, Grisham, RN, Sonoda, Y, Long Roche, K, Abu-Rustum, NR & Chi, DS 2023, 'Ten-year conditional probability of survival for patients with ovarian cancer: A new metric tailored to Long-term survivors', Gynecologic Oncology, vol. 169, pp. 85-90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ygyno.2022.11.030

@article{a2c760c594f345caba4d8304bbe6d7e8,

title = "Ten-year conditional probability of survival for patients with ovarian cancer: A new metric tailored to Long-term survivors",

abstract = "OBJECTIVES: We assessed a conditional probability of survival (CPS) model to determine the probability of living 10 years after ovarian cancer diagnosis after having already survived 5 years.METHODS: We identified patients newly diagnosed with high-grade epithelial ovarian cancer from 1/1/2001-12/31/2009 and treated at our institution. Patients with <3 years follow-up were excluded. CPS was defined as the probability of surviving additional years (y) based on the condition a patient had already survived a given time (x): S(x + y)/S(x). Confidence intervals were estimated using a variation of Greenwood's formula.RESULTS: Of 916 patients meeting inclusion criteria, 473 (52\%) were diagnosed from 2001 to 2005 and 443 (48\%) from 2006 to 2009. Median age at diagnosis was 60 years (range, 25-95). The conventional 10-year OS rate for all patients was 29\% (95\% CI: 26\%-32\%)-75\% (95\% CI: 68\%-82\%) for stage I/II disease, 22\% (95\% CI: 19\%-26\%) for stage III, and 6.9\% (95\% CI: 3.9\%-12\%) for stage IV. For patients <65 years, the 10-year CPS for 5-year survivors was 65\% (95\% CI: 59\%-70\%); for those ≥65 years, it was 48\% (95\% CI: 38\%-57\%). For patients <65 years, the 10-year CPS for 5-year survivors by stage was: stage I/II, 89\% (95\% CI: 81\%-94\%); stage III, 58\% (95\% CI: 50\%-66\%); and stage IV, 26\% (95\% CI: 12\%-42\%). For patients ≥65 years, rates by stage were 78\% (95\% CI: 53\%-91\%), 42\% (95\% CI: 30\%-53\%), and 29\% (95\% CI: 7\%-56\%), respectively.CONCLUSIONS: For long-term survivors with high-grade epithelial ovarian cancer, CPS provides better prediction of survival than conventional methods.",

keywords = "Humans, Female, Adult, Middle Aged, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Carcinoma, Ovarian Epithelial, Neoplasm Staging, Ovarian Neoplasms/pathology, Probability, Survivors",

author = "Ryan Kahn and Olga Filippova and Sushmita Gordhandas and Anjile An and Straubhar, \{Alli M\} and Oliver Zivanovic and Gardner, \{Ginger J\} and O'Cearbhaill, \{Roisin E\} and Tew, \{William P\} and Grisham, \{Rachel N\} and Yukio Sonoda and \{Long Roche\}, Kara and Abu-Rustum, \{Nadeem R\} and Chi, \{Dennis S\}",

year = "2023",

month = feb,

doi = "10.1016/j.ygyno.2022.11.030",

language = "English",

volume = "169",

pages = "85--90",

journal = "Gynecologic Oncology",

issn = "0090-8258",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Ten-year conditional probability of survival for patients with ovarian cancer

T2 - A new metric tailored to Long-term survivors

AU - Kahn, Ryan

AU - Filippova, Olga

AU - Gordhandas, Sushmita

AU - An, Anjile

AU - Straubhar, Alli M

AU - Zivanovic, Oliver

AU - Gardner, Ginger J

AU - O'Cearbhaill, Roisin E

AU - Tew, William P

AU - Grisham, Rachel N

AU - Sonoda, Yukio

AU - Long Roche, Kara

AU - Abu-Rustum, Nadeem R

AU - Chi, Dennis S

PY - 2023/2

Y1 - 2023/2

N2 - OBJECTIVES: We assessed a conditional probability of survival (CPS) model to determine the probability of living 10 years after ovarian cancer diagnosis after having already survived 5 years.METHODS: We identified patients newly diagnosed with high-grade epithelial ovarian cancer from 1/1/2001-12/31/2009 and treated at our institution. Patients with <3 years follow-up were excluded. CPS was defined as the probability of surviving additional years (y) based on the condition a patient had already survived a given time (x): S(x + y)/S(x). Confidence intervals were estimated using a variation of Greenwood's formula.RESULTS: Of 916 patients meeting inclusion criteria, 473 (52%) were diagnosed from 2001 to 2005 and 443 (48%) from 2006 to 2009. Median age at diagnosis was 60 years (range, 25-95). The conventional 10-year OS rate for all patients was 29% (95% CI: 26%-32%)-75% (95% CI: 68%-82%) for stage I/II disease, 22% (95% CI: 19%-26%) for stage III, and 6.9% (95% CI: 3.9%-12%) for stage IV. For patients <65 years, the 10-year CPS for 5-year survivors was 65% (95% CI: 59%-70%); for those ≥65 years, it was 48% (95% CI: 38%-57%). For patients <65 years, the 10-year CPS for 5-year survivors by stage was: stage I/II, 89% (95% CI: 81%-94%); stage III, 58% (95% CI: 50%-66%); and stage IV, 26% (95% CI: 12%-42%). For patients ≥65 years, rates by stage were 78% (95% CI: 53%-91%), 42% (95% CI: 30%-53%), and 29% (95% CI: 7%-56%), respectively.CONCLUSIONS: For long-term survivors with high-grade epithelial ovarian cancer, CPS provides better prediction of survival than conventional methods.

AB - OBJECTIVES: We assessed a conditional probability of survival (CPS) model to determine the probability of living 10 years after ovarian cancer diagnosis after having already survived 5 years.METHODS: We identified patients newly diagnosed with high-grade epithelial ovarian cancer from 1/1/2001-12/31/2009 and treated at our institution. Patients with <3 years follow-up were excluded. CPS was defined as the probability of surviving additional years (y) based on the condition a patient had already survived a given time (x): S(x + y)/S(x). Confidence intervals were estimated using a variation of Greenwood's formula.RESULTS: Of 916 patients meeting inclusion criteria, 473 (52%) were diagnosed from 2001 to 2005 and 443 (48%) from 2006 to 2009. Median age at diagnosis was 60 years (range, 25-95). The conventional 10-year OS rate for all patients was 29% (95% CI: 26%-32%)-75% (95% CI: 68%-82%) for stage I/II disease, 22% (95% CI: 19%-26%) for stage III, and 6.9% (95% CI: 3.9%-12%) for stage IV. For patients <65 years, the 10-year CPS for 5-year survivors was 65% (95% CI: 59%-70%); for those ≥65 years, it was 48% (95% CI: 38%-57%). For patients <65 years, the 10-year CPS for 5-year survivors by stage was: stage I/II, 89% (95% CI: 81%-94%); stage III, 58% (95% CI: 50%-66%); and stage IV, 26% (95% CI: 12%-42%). For patients ≥65 years, rates by stage were 78% (95% CI: 53%-91%), 42% (95% CI: 30%-53%), and 29% (95% CI: 7%-56%), respectively.CONCLUSIONS: For long-term survivors with high-grade epithelial ovarian cancer, CPS provides better prediction of survival than conventional methods.

KW - Humans

KW - Female

KW - Adult

KW - Middle Aged

KW - Aged

KW - Aged, 80 and over

KW - Carcinoma, Ovarian Epithelial

KW - Neoplasm Staging

KW - Ovarian Neoplasms/pathology

KW - Probability

KW - Survivors

U2 - 10.1016/j.ygyno.2022.11.030

DO - 10.1016/j.ygyno.2022.11.030

M3 - Article

C2 - 36521353

SN - 0090-8258

VL - 169

SP - 85

EP - 90

JO - Gynecologic Oncology

JF - Gynecologic Oncology

ER -